With the 2024 NFL playoffs narrowing down to the final four teams following a thrilling divisional round, all eyes are now on Championship Sunday, featuring some of the league’s premier clubs.
The top-seeded teams, Baltimore and San Francisco, emerged victorious in their respective playoff games after earning a first-round bye. As a result, they will host the AFC and NFC Championship games, setting the stage for an exciting showdown. On the other side, the Lions managed to fend off the Buccaneers, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs pulled off an upset against the Bills to secure their sixth consecutive AFC Championship appearance.
As we anticipate the drama of the penultimate weekend in the NFL, let’s explore the initial leanings of oddsmakers with the opening lines for the upcoming conference championships.
2024 NFL Playoffs: Championship Early Odds Notable Movements and Trends
Chiefs at Ravens
The Ravens enter the first game of Championship Sunday as an early 3.5-point favorite against the Chiefs. Baltimore boasts a solid 12-6 Against The Spread (ATS) record this season, including the 2024 NFL playoffs, with a noteworthy 66.7% cover rate—the second-best in the NFL. At home, the Ravens hold a 6-4 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, secured a win (and cover) in their first 2024 NFL playoff game on the road against Buffalo.
Throughout the season, Kansas City has proven to be a reliable bet away from Arrowhead Stadium, with a 5-3-1 ATS record, tying for the sixth-best percentage in the league this year (including 2024 NFL playoffs). Despite expectations for a defensive battle, it’s worth noting that the Under, while 13-6 for the Chiefs overall (including 2024 NFL playoffs), is only 4-5 when they play away. At M&T Bank Stadium, the Over is 5-4-1 for the Ravens this year.
Lions at 49ers
In the NFC Championship, the 49ers currently hold a substantial seven-point lead over the Lions. San Francisco narrowly escaped the divisional round against the Packers and now prepares to face another NFC North contender in Santa Clara. A significant factor in this matchup will be the health of Deebo Samuel, the star receiver for the 49ers, who exited their 2024 NFL playoff game against Green Bay early due to injury. As his status becomes clearer, this line could see adjustments.
The Lions, the best team against the spread this season with a remarkable 13-6 ATS record, will be away from Ford Field for the first time this postseason. During the regular season, Detroit performed admirably on the road with a 7-2 ATS record. In contrast, the Niners are 3-6 ATS at Levi’s Stadium this year (including the 2024 NFL playoffs). With the total surpassing 50, the Over is 12-7 in Lions games this year, but only 5-4 when they play away. San Francisco holds an identical 5-4 record with the Over in its home games.) National Football League